fixed some bs

This commit is contained in:
klein panic
2024-10-27 18:03:01 -04:00
parent 8d9ed2e7ea
commit a81e38e21f
5 changed files with 103 additions and 28 deletions

1
.gitignore vendored Normal file
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@@ -0,0 +1 @@
venv/

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@@ -21,6 +21,9 @@ def scrape_oil_news():
response = requests.get(OIL_NEWS_URL)
response.raise_for_status()
# Print the HTML to see what we are working with
print(response.text[:1000]) # Print only the first 1000 characters for brevity
# Parse the HTML using BeautifulSoup
soup = BeautifulSoup(response.text, "html.parser")
@@ -45,9 +48,7 @@ def scrape_oil_news():
'date': date
})
# Convert the list into a pandas DataFrame
df = pd.DataFrame(news_data)
return df
# Function to run the scraper and save data

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@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
from selenium import webdriver
from selenium.webdriver.firefox.service import Service
from selenium.webdriver.common.by import By
import time
# Provide the path to your geckodriver executable using the Service class
service = Service(executable_path='/usr/local/bin/geckodriver')
driver = webdriver.Firefox(service=service)
# Open a website (e.g., OilPrice.com)
driver.get("https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/")
# Wait for the page to load
time.sleep(5)
# Print the title of the page to verify that it's loaded
print(driver.title)
# Find and print some element on the page, e.g., all article titles
articles = driver.find_elements(By.CSS_SELECTOR, "div.categoryArticle")
for article in articles:
title = article.find_element(By.TAG_NAME, "a").text
print(f"Article title: {title}")
# Close the browser
driver.quit()

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@@ -8,6 +8,7 @@ def ticker_info():
ticker = "gush"
return ticker.upper()
def fetch_expiration_dates(ticker):
print(f"Fetching available expiration dates for {ticker}...")
stock = yf.Ticker(ticker)
@@ -15,12 +16,14 @@ def fetch_expiration_dates(ticker):
print(f"Available expiration dates: {expiration_dates}")
return expiration_dates
def select_expiration_date(expiration_dates):
print("Selecting the first available expiration date...")
expiration_date = expiration_dates[0]
print(f"Selected expiration date: {expiration_date}")
return expiration_date
def fetch_option_chain(ticker, expiration_date):
print(f"Fetching option chain for {ticker} with expiration date {expiration_date}...")
stock = yf.Ticker(ticker)
@@ -28,11 +31,14 @@ def fetch_option_chain(ticker, expiration_date):
print("Option chain fetched successfully!")
return options_chain
def get_price_data(ticker, start_date, end_date):
print(f"Fetching price data for {ticker} from {start_date} to {end_date}...")
data = yf.download(ticker, start=start_date, end=end_date)
print(f"Price data fetched successfully for {ticker}!")
return data
def moving_average_strategy(data, short_window=20, long_window=50):
data['Short_MA'] = data['Close'].rolling(window=short_window).mean()
data['Long_MA'] = data['Close'].rolling(window=long_window).mean()
@@ -41,33 +47,70 @@ def moving_average_strategy(data, short_window=20, long_window=50):
def rsi_strategy(data, window=14, overbought=70, oversold=30):
delta = data['Close'].diff(1)
gain = np.where(delta > 0, delta, 0)
loss = np.where(delta < 0, abs(delta), 0)
gain = np.where(delta > 0, delta, 0).flatten() # Flatten to 1D array
loss = np.where(delta < 0, abs(delta), 0).flatten() # Flatten to 1D array
avg_gain = pd.Series(gain).rolling(window=window).mean()
avg_loss = pd.Series(loss).rolling(window=window).mean()
rs = avg_gain / avg_loss
# Avoid division by zero by using np.where to replace 0 with np.nan in avg_loss
rs = avg_gain / np.where(avg_loss == 0, np.nan, avg_loss)
rsi = 100 - (100 / (1 + rs))
signal = np.where(rsi < oversold, 1, np.where(rsi > overbought, -1, 0))
return pd.Series(signal, index=data.index)
def bollinger_bands_strategy(data, window=20, num_std=2):
# Calculate moving average
data['Moving_Avg'] = data['Close'].rolling(window=window).mean()
data['Band_Upper'] = data['Moving_Avg'] + num_std * data['Close'].rolling(window).std()
data['Band_Lower'] = data['Moving_Avg'] - num_std * data['Close'].rolling(window).std()
signal = np.where(data['Close'] < data['Band_Lower'], 1, np.where(data['Close'] > data['Band_Upper'], -1, 0))
# Calculate rolling standard deviation and force it to be a Series
rolling_std = data['Close'].rolling(window).std()
rolling_std = rolling_std.squeeze() # Ensure rolling_std is a Series
# Print shapes for debugging
print(f"Shape of Moving_Avg: {data['Moving_Avg'].shape}")
print(f"Shape of Rolling Std: {rolling_std.shape}")
# Calculate upper and lower bands
data['Band_Upper'] = data['Moving_Avg'] + (num_std * rolling_std)
data['Band_Lower'] = data['Moving_Avg'] - (num_std * rolling_std)
# Print shapes after assignments for debugging
print(f"Shape of Band_Upper: {data['Band_Upper'].shape}")
print(f"Shape of Band_Lower: {data['Band_Lower'].shape}")
# Check for NaN values
print(f"NaNs in Close: {data['Close'].isna().sum()}")
print(f"NaNs in Band_Upper: {data['Band_Upper'].isna().sum()}")
print(f"NaNs in Band_Lower: {data['Band_Lower'].isna().sum()}")
# Print the columns of the DataFrame
print(f"Columns in data before dropping NaNs: {data.columns.tolist()}")
# Optionally drop rows with NaNs
data = data.dropna(subset=['Close', 'Band_Upper', 'Band_Lower'])
# Generate signals based on the bands
signal = np.where(data['Close'] < data['Band_Lower'], 1,
np.where(data['Close'] > data['Band_Upper'], -1, 0))
return pd.Series(signal, index=data.index)
def generate_signals(data):
ma_signal = moving_average_strategy(data)
rsi_signal = rsi_strategy(data)
bollinger_signal = bollinger_bands_strategy(data)
return [ma_signal, rsi_signal, bollinger_signal]
return pd.DataFrame({'MA': ma_signal, 'RSI': rsi_signal, 'Bollinger': bollinger_signal})
def backtest_option_trades(option_chain, signals, stock_data):
"""
Backtest option trades based on the given signals and stock data.
"""
trades = []
current_position = None
signals = pd.Series(signals) # Convert signals to pandas Series
# Ensure both stock_data and option_chain indices are sorted in ascending order
stock_data = stock_data.sort_index()
@@ -76,7 +119,7 @@ def backtest_option_trades(option_chain, signals, stock_data):
if 'lastTradeDate' in option_chain.columns:
option_chain['lastTradeDate'] = pd.to_datetime(option_chain['lastTradeDate'])
option_chain = option_chain.set_index('lastTradeDate')
# If option_chain index isn't datetime, convert it to datetime (ensuring compatibility)
option_chain.index = pd.to_datetime(option_chain.index)
@@ -88,7 +131,7 @@ def backtest_option_trades(option_chain, signals, stock_data):
option_chain = option_chain.reindex(stock_data.index, method='ffill')
for i in range(len(signals)):
if signals.iloc[i] == 1 and current_position is None:
if signals.iloc[i]['MA'] == 1 and current_position is None:
# BUY signal
entry_price = option_chain['lastPrice'].iloc[i]
if pd.isna(entry_price): # If price is nan, log the error and continue
@@ -101,7 +144,7 @@ def backtest_option_trades(option_chain, signals, stock_data):
}
print(f"BUY signal on {entry_date}: Entry Price = {entry_price}")
elif signals.iloc[i] == -1 and current_position is not None:
elif signals.iloc[i]['MA'] == -1 and current_position is not None:
# SELL signal
exit_price = option_chain['lastPrice'].iloc[i]
if pd.isna(exit_price): # If price is nan, log the error and continue
@@ -126,33 +169,35 @@ def backtest_option_trades(option_chain, signals, stock_data):
win_rate = total_wins / total_trades if total_trades > 0 else 0
return cumulative_pnl, trades, win_rate
total_trades = len(trades)
cumulative_pnl, daily_pnls, win_rate, total_trades = backtest_option_trades(options_chain.calls, weighted_signals, test_data)
return cumulative_pnl, trades, win_rate, total_trades
def objective_function_profit(weights, strategy_signals, data, option_chain):
weights = np.array(weights)
weights /= np.sum(weights) # Normalize weights
weighted_signals = np.sum([signal * weight for signal, weight in zip(strategy_signals, weights)], axis=0)
weighted_signals = np.sum([signal * weight for signal, weight in zip(strategy_signals.T.values, weights)], axis=0)
# Since `backtest_option_trades` returns 3 values, we only unpack those
cumulative_pnl, _, _ = backtest_option_trades(option_chain, weighted_signals, data)
# Return negative cumulative P&L to maximize profit
return -cumulative_pnl
def optimize_weights(strategy_signals, data, option_chain):
initial_weights = [1/len(strategy_signals)] * len(strategy_signals)
initial_weights = [1 / len(strategy_signals.columns)] * len(strategy_signals.columns)
constraints = ({'type': 'eq', 'fun': lambda weights: np.sum(weights) - 1})
bounds = [(0, 1)] * len(strategy_signals)
bounds = [(0, 1)] * len(strategy_signals.columns)
result = minimize(objective_function_profit, initial_weights, args=(strategy_signals, data, option_chain),
method='SLSQP', bounds=bounds, constraints=constraints)
return result.x # Optimal weights
def weighted_signal_combination(strategy_signals, weights):
weighted_signals = np.sum([signal * weight for signal, weight in zip(strategy_signals, weights)], axis=0)
weighted_signals = np.sum([signal * weight for signal, weight in zip(strategy_signals.T.values, weights)], axis=0)
return weighted_signals
def main_decision(weighted_signals):
last_signal = weighted_signals[-1] # Latest signal
if last_signal > 0:
@@ -161,6 +206,8 @@ def main_decision(weighted_signals):
return "SELL"
else:
return "HOLD"
def run_backtest():
ticker = ticker_info()
expiration_dates = fetch_expiration_dates(ticker)
@@ -169,22 +216,22 @@ def run_backtest():
# Fetch training data
train_data = get_price_data(ticker, '2010-01-01', '2022-01-01')
# Generate signals
strategy_signals_train = generate_signals(train_data)
# Optimize weights
optimal_weights = optimize_weights(strategy_signals_train, train_data, options_chain.calls)
# Fetch test data
test_data = get_price_data(ticker, '2022-01-02', '2024-01-01')
# Generate test signals
strategy_signals_test = generate_signals(test_data)
# Combine signals and backtest
weighted_signals = weighted_signal_combination(strategy_signals_test, optimal_weights)
cumulative_pnl, daily_pnls, win_rate = backtest_option_trades(options_chain.calls, weighted_signals, test_data)
cumulative_pnl, trades, win_rate = backtest_option_trades(options_chain.calls, weighted_signals, test_data)
# Make final decision
decision = main_decision(weighted_signals)
@@ -193,7 +240,7 @@ def run_backtest():
# Output results
print(f"Cumulative P&L: {cumulative_pnl}")
print(f"Win Rate: {win_rate * 100:.2f}%")
# Call the main function
run_backtest()